The Myth of Catholics Preferring Trump Over the Pope: Debunking a Misleading Narrative

The Myth of Catholics Preferring Trump Over the Pope: Debunking a Misleading Narrative

In recent weeks, amid tensions between President Donald Trump and Pope Leo XIV (the first American pontiff), some online voices and partisan commentators have pushed a narrative that U.S. Catholics favor Trump more than the Pope. 

This claim circulates in memes, social media posts, and selective interpretations of polling. It is inaccurate, unscientific, and contradicted by robust data from reputable sources. Let's examine the facts.

 The Alleged Poll and Why It's Problematic

No credible, scientific poll directly supports the idea that Catholics as a group "favor Trump more than the Pope." Searches for such a poll turn up no reputable survey framing the question this way. Instead, the claim appears to stem from:

- Misreadings of Trump's 2024 election performance among Catholic voters (he won a majority, around 55-59% according to exit polls).

- Cherry-picked approval ratings for Trump among Catholics (often in the 48-52% range) without comparing them to the Pope's favorability.

- Partisan spin ignoring methodology, sample sizes, and question wording.

Why such claims are unscientific:

1. Apples-to-Oranges Comparison: Trump's figures are typically job approval ratings (a political metric tied to policy and performance). The Pope's are personal favorability ratings (a broader measure of respect for his spiritual role). Equating them misleads.

2. Lack of Head-to-Head Polling: Legitimate polls rarely pit the two directly in the same question among Catholics. When favorability is measured side-by-side, the Pope dominates.

3. Sampling and Margin of Error Issues: Many viral claims rely on subgroup crosstabs with small samples (e.g., a few hundred Catholics), leading to higher margins of error (±5-8 points or more). Fluctuations (Trump's Catholic approval dipping then rebounding slightly) get exaggerated.

4. Selection Bias: Pro-Trump voices highlight one poll's Trump numbers while ignoring consistent high Pope ratings from Pew, EWTN/RealClear, NBC, and others.

 The Real Data: Pope Leo XIV's Strong Support Among Catholics

Reputable polls consistently show Pope Leo XIV enjoys overwhelming favorability among U.S. Catholics:

- Pew Research Center (September 2025): 84% of U.S. Catholics view Pope Leo favorably (37% "very favorable," 47% "mostly favorable"). Only 4% unfavorable; 11% hadn't heard of him. This matches early ratings for Pope Francis and holds across demographics, including 95% among weekly Mass attendees.

- EWTN News / RealClear Opinion Research (late 2025): 70% favorable toward Pope Leo (44% "very," 27% "somewhat"). Just 4% unfavorable. In the same poll, Trump had 52% favorable—respectable but far below the Pope.

- NBC News (March 2026): Pope Leo had the highest net favorability among public figures tested (+34 among broader voters), far ahead of Trump (-12).

Catholic approval of Trump has fluctuated (e.g., Fox News polls showed it dipping to 48% approve/52% disapprove in March 2026 before rebounding to 51%/49% in April), but it remains well below the Pope's consistent 70-84% favorability.

Even among Catholic voters who supported Trump in 2024, loyalty to the papacy as an institution remains high. Catholics are not a monolith—white Catholics lean more Republican; Hispanic Catholics less so—but respect for the Pope transcends partisan lines in polling.

 Context Matters: Election vs. Ongoing Leadership

Trump did win a majority of Catholic voters in 2024 (around 55-59%), building on cultural issues like abortion. However, this reflects a snapshot of electoral choice, not enduring personal preference over the Holy Father. Post-election polls show policy disagreements (e.g., on immigration, war) and the recent Trump-Pope tensions have strained but not broken Catholic support for the pontiff.

Faithful Catholics can (and do) support political candidates while maintaining filial respect for the Pope. Polling does not show a wholesale preference for Trump over the Pope.

 Conclusion

The notion that Catholics favor Trump more than Pope Leo XIV is a distortion unsupported by evidence. High-quality surveys from Pew, EWTN, NBC, and Fox consistently demonstrate the Pope's far stronger personal favorability among Catholics. Conflating election votes, approval ratings, and favorability ratings creates a false narrative. U.S. Catholics, like the broader Church, prioritize faith over fleeting political figures.

As Catholics, our ultimate allegiance is to Christ and His Church—not any politician. Polls reflect this reality.

Sources:

- Pew Research Center: "More than 8 in 10 U.S. Catholics view Pope Leo favorably" (Sept. 2025).

- EWTN News / RealClear Opinion Research polls (2025).

- Fox News Polls (Feb-April 2026 crosstabs).

- NBC News Poll (March 2026).

- Additional context from CNN exit polls, PRRI, and Quinnipiac (2024-2026).

Atheism on the Rise

A poll conducted by “The Global Index of Religiosity and Atheism,” seems to show that Atheism is on the rise while Religiosity is not.  The poll shows a drop from 73% in 2005 to 60% in regards to religiosity.  Atheism rose from 1% to 5%.  

The polls seem to show a big difference - or do they?  We must look at certain things first.

1. One cannot really compare 73% to 1% or 5% to the point of concluding that a dramatic difference is taking place.  73% or even 60% is still larger than 1% or 5%.
2. Only 50,000 people were interviewed from 57 countries.  This is hardly a big enough sample to make a concise conclusion.  
3. In the United States, the failure to produce enough signatures to get the White House to intervene on behalf of Atheist Alexander Aan shows that Atheism is not as numerous and powerful as Christianity in America.  

Atheism might be on the rise, but not by much when compared to other religions.  Atheism will never rule the world as the dominate religion.  It does not offer the same substance that other religions such as Christianity offers.  

Atheism offers merely speculative conclusions based on the subjective acceptance of what is empirical evidence and what is not. To date: There is no empirical evidence that indicates the absence of God. This leaves Atheism as merely speculative rhetoric.  An Atheist must take on in 'faith' that there really is no God.  

A recent study conducted by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life  /  U.S. Religious Landscape Survey shows that Atheism has the lowest retention rate of any religion.  In other words, Atheism does not keep its members for long.  Those who call themselves Atheists eventually leave it and embrace other religions.  

Recently Atheist blogger Leah Libresco announced her conversion to Catholicism.  I myself used to be an Atheist and am now aspiring to be a Catholic priest.

Atheism offers nothing but speculative reasoning, or lack of.  It is a premise that claims God and religion as superstition without evidence.  The human mind like the stomach needs something solid, to paraphrase Chesterton.  These slogans such as 'God is a myth' or 'God is dead' just don't work without evidence in a rational mind.    

The only reasons Atheism would be on the rise is due to poor catechesis and anger from disgruntled believers.  Followers of religions who are not 'well fed' will look for food elsewhere.  Moreover, believers who have a 'bad experience' with members of their congregations, clergy or even God will become desensitized and lose faith.  

It is interesting to note that this poll was taken at a time where priests, ministers and nuns were under scrutiny for child abuse - and at a time when Islam became the poster child for violence and terrorism.

This is why it is important that we teach our people Truth and not opinions.  It is important that we live our Christianity and not practice it like a Pharisee.  Scandals hurt the faith of others greatly.  Our lives and behavior might be the only Bible or Catechism another might ever experience.    

Nevertheless, people who left eventually turn back to God and believe as the get older.          

  
   


Source:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/on-faith/poll-shows-atheism-on-the-rise-in-the-us/2012/08/13/90020fd6-e57d-11e1-9739-eef99c5fb285_story.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/14/atheism-rise-religiosity-decline-in-america_n_1777031.html

http://news.yahoo.com/rise-atheism-america-110700315.html