Refutation: The Decline in Catholic Mass Attendance Predates Vatican IIThe claim that Vatican II (1962–1965) “triggered a decline” in worldwide Catholic Mass attendance, as asserted in the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) study cited in the post, oversimplifies a complex phenomenon and ignores significant evidence that the decline in Catholic religious participation began well before the Second Vatican Council.
While the NBER study, titled Looking Backward: Long-Term Religious Service Attendance in 66 Countries, authored by Robert J. Barro, Edgard Dewitte, and Laurence Iannaccone, concludes that Catholic Mass attendance in predominantly Catholic countries decreased relative to other denominations after 1965, it does not adequately account for pre-existing trends of declining religious observance, broader secularization processes, and the unique socio-cultural contexts of the mid-20th century. This refutation will demonstrate that the decline in Catholic Mass attendance was already underway before Vatican II, driven by societal shifts such as secularization, industrialization, and changing cultural attitudes, and that Vatican II was more a response to these trends than their cause. Furthermore, it will critique the methodology and assumptions of the NBER study to highlight its limitations in establishing causality.
1. Evidence of Pre-Vatican II Decline in Catholic Mass Attendance
Historical data and studies indicate that Catholic Mass attendance was already declining in several regions before Vatican II convened in 1962. These trends undermine the assertion that Vatican II was the primary trigger for the decline in attendance.
- Germany (1920s–1950s): Church historian Wilhelm Damberg notes that Catholic Mass attendance in Germany peaked in 1935 at approximately 50% but began to decline steadily thereafter. By 1965, the proportion of Catholics regularly attending Mass had fallen to 45%, a clear indication that the downward trend was in motion before Vatican II. This decline was influenced by post-World War II social changes, including urbanization and the disruption of traditional community structures, which weakened religious observance.[](https://praytellblog.com/index.php/2017/03/18/alternative-facts-on-vatican-ii/)
- Italy (1950s–1961): Stephen Bullivant’s Mass Exodus: Catholic Disaffiliation in Britain and America Since Vatican II (2019) documents that Mass attendance in parts of Italy had dropped to around 50% by 1961, before Vatican II began. This suggests that even in strongly Catholic countries, participation was waning due to broader societal shifts, such as increased prosperity and the rise of consumer culture, rather than the Council itself.[](https://catholicstand.com/did-vatican-ii-cause-the-catholic-church-to-decline/)
- France (Pre-1965): French historian Guillaume Cuchet’s work, referenced in the post, notes a decline in Catholic practice in France prior to 1965. For example, Mass attendance fell from an estimated 35–40% in the 1950s to 27% by 1965, reflecting a gradual erosion of religious observance tied to secularizing trends and the aftermath of World War II. While Cuchet points to 1965 as a significant turning point, he attributes this to the cumulative effect of cultural changes rather than Vatican II alone.[](https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/new-secular-study-finds-vatican-ii-triggered-a-decline-in-catholic-mass-attendance-worldwide/)
- United States (1950s): A 1958 Gallup Poll reported that 75% of U.S. Catholics attended Mass weekly, but this figure masks regional and demographic variations. By the early 1960s, attendance had begun to decline, particularly among younger Catholics. Kenneth Jones’ Index of Leading Catholic Indicators: The Church Since Vatican II notes that the number of seminarians in the U.S. dropped from 49,000 in 1965 to 4,700 by 2002, but this decline was preceded by a stagnation in vocations in the 1950s, signaling early signs of disengagement.[](https://vaticancatholic.com/figures-post-vatican-ii-decline/)
- England (1960): Bullivant also cites a suppressed 1960 report on Irish Catholic Mass attendance in England, which indicated significant declines among immigrant communities. This suggests that even in traditionally devout populations, participation was weakening before Vatican II, likely due to the challenges of integrating into a more secular society.[](https://catholicstand.com/did-vatican-ii-cause-the-catholic-church-to-decline/)
These examples demonstrate that Catholic Mass attendance was declining in multiple regions prior to Vatican II, driven by factors such as urbanization, economic prosperity, and the weakening of traditional social structures that had historically reinforced religious observance. The NBER study’s focus on a post-1965 decline in Catholic countries relative to others overlooks these earlier trends, which are critical to understanding the broader context.
2. Broader Secularization Trends Across Religions
The decline in Catholic Mass attendance must be viewed within the context of a global secularization trend that affected all religious denominations, not just Catholicism. The NBER study’s claim that Vatican II caused a unique decline in Catholic attendance relative to other denominations is misleading because it understates the parallel declines in Protestant and other religious attendance during the same period.
- Protestant Decline Post-Vatican II: Bullivant’s Mass Exodus highlights that in the decade following Vatican II, Catholic Mass attendance in Western countries dropped by approximately one-third, but Protestant church attendance fell by half. In England, data from Christian-Research.org show that Church of England attendance was declining steadily from the 1930s, well before Vatican II, and continued to fall at a comparable rate to Catholic attendance after 1965. This suggests that a broader societal shift toward secularism, rather than Vatican II specifically, was driving declines across Christian denominations.[](https://catholicstand.com/did-vatican-ii-cause-the-catholic-church-to-decline/)
- Global Secularization Trends: The 20th century saw a rise in secular ideologies, including materialism, individualism, and consumerism, which eroded religious participation across faiths. For example, in Japan, nominal adherence to Shinto and Buddhism declined significantly in the post-World War II period, despite no equivalent to Vatican II in those traditions. Similarly, in Europe, the rise of secular education and media in the 1950s and 1960s contributed to declining religious observance across denominations. The NBER study’s focus on Catholic-specific declines ignores these parallel trends, which suggest that Catholicism was not uniquely affected.[](https://www.reddit.com/r/Catholicism/comments/1c3nymb/myths_of_lost_latin_and_vatican_ii_as_causes_of/)
- Baby Boomer Disengagement: The post-World War II generation, particularly the Baby Boomers, exhibited a marked shift away from institutional religion. A 2021 analysis on the Catholic TL;DR Blog argues that Boomer disengagement from religious practice began in the 1950s, driven by a rejection of traditional authority and an embrace of hedonistic cultural trends in the 1960s and 1970s. Between 1960 and 1970, Catholic Mass attendance among Boomers dropped from 70% to 20%, a trend that predates the full implementation of Vatican II’s liturgical reforms. This generational shift was not unique to Catholicism but reflected a broader cultural move toward individualism.[](https://www.catholictldr.com/blog/churchattendancepostvaticanii)
By framing Vatican II as the primary trigger, the NBER study fails to account for these broader secularization trends, which affected religious participation across multiple faiths and regions. The decline in Catholic Mass attendance was part of a larger societal shift rather than a direct consequence of the Council.
3. Critiquing the NBER Study’s Methodology and Assumptions
The NBER study’s conclusion that Vatican II “triggered” a decline in Catholic Mass attendance relies on an event-study design that assumes Vatican II was an unanticipated shock that directly caused changes in attendance. However, this methodology has several limitations that undermine its causal claims.
- Overreliance on Post-1965 Data: The study emphasizes a relative decline in Catholic attendance starting in 1965, but it does not sufficiently explore pre-1965 trends. By focusing on the period immediately following Vatican II, the study risks attributing all subsequent declines to the Council without adequately controlling for earlier patterns. For example, the data cited above from Germany, Italy, and France show that attendance was already declining in the 1950s, suggesting that Vatican II may have coincided with, rather than caused, the trend.[](https://catholicstand.com/did-vatican-ii-cause-the-catholic-church-to-decline/)[](https://praytellblog.com/index.php/2017/03/18/alternative-facts-on-vatican-ii/)
- Selection Bias in Country Classification: The study defines “Catholic countries” as those with a Catholic population of 50% or greater, including nations like Ireland, Italy, and Brazil. However, this classification overlooks variations in cultural and historical contexts. For instance, France, which was predominantly Catholic, was already experiencing significant secularization due to its history of anti-clericalism and the impact of the French Revolution. The study’s broad categorization may exaggerate the apparent Catholic-specific decline by grouping together countries with diverse religious and social dynamics.[](https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/new-secular-study-finds-vatican-ii-triggered-a-decline-in-catholic-mass-attendance-worldwide/)
- Neglect of Non-Liturgical Factors: The NBER study attributes the decline to Vatican II’s perceived disruption of the Church’s authority and identity, citing scholars like Andrew Greeley and Robert MacCulloch. However, it downplays other significant factors, such as the 1968 encyclical Humanae Vitae, which reaffirmed the Church’s ban on contraception and provoked widespread dissent among Catholics. Bullivant notes that Humanae Vitae was a more significant driver of disaffiliation than liturgical changes, as it alienated many lay Catholics who felt the Church was out of touch with modern values. By focusing on Vatican II, the study underestimates the impact of subsequent events.[](https://www.americamagazine.org/arts-culture/2019/11/14/review-why-did-so-many-catholics-leave-after-vatican-ii)
- Retrospective Data Limitations: The study relies on retrospective questions from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) to construct attendance rates back to the 1920s. While the authors claim that checks support the reliability of this data, retrospective surveys are prone to recall bias, particularly for events decades in the past. This methodological weakness may distort pre-1965 attendance figures, making it difficult to accurately assess trends before Vatican II.[](https://www.complicitclergy.com/2025/07/28/new-statistical-study-proves-vatican-ii-triggered-worldwide-decline-in-mass-attendance/)
These methodological flaws suggest that the NBER study’s causal attribution to Vatican II is overly simplistic and does not adequately account for alternative explanations or pre-existing trends.
4. Vatican II as a Response to Decline, Not a Cause
Rather than causing the decline in Mass attendance, Vatican II was convened to address the challenges of a changing world, including the already evident decline in religious participation. Pope John XXIII called for the Council in 1958 to pursue aggiornamento (updating) to make the Church more relevant in an increasingly secular society. The Council’s reforms, such as the use of the vernacular in the liturgy and greater lay participation, were intended to revitalize Catholic engagement, not to undermine it.
- Liturgical Reform Context: The liturgical changes introduced post-Vatican II, such as the Novus Ordo Mass, were part of a longer Liturgical Movement that began in the 19th century. For example, the Benedictine Liturgical Conference in the U.S. had been advocating for vernacular liturgy and lay involvement since the 1940s. These reforms were responses to a perceived disconnect between the Latin Mass and modern Catholics, many of whom, as described in a 2015 blog post, felt detached during pre-Vatican II Masses, with priests celebrating in Latin and minimal congregational participation.[](https://www.catholicculture.org/culture/library/view.cfm?recnum=9377)[](https://reinkat.wordpress.com/2015/07/07/before-and-after-vatican-ii/)
- Engagement with Modernity: Vatican II’s documents, such as Sacrosanctum Concilium and Lumen Gentium, emphasized active participation and the universal call to holiness, aiming to make Catholicism more accessible. While some argue that these changes disrupted traditional practices, others, like the author of a 2018 The Conversation article, contend that Vatican II gained the Church legitimacy by aligning it with democratic values and religious freedom, as seen in the Declaration of Religious Liberty. Without these reforms, the Church may have faced even greater losses as secularization accelerated.[](https://theconversation.com/the-catholic-church-resists-change-but-vatican-ii-shows-its-possible-102543)
- Mixed Outcomes: While the Council’s reforms did not fully reverse the decline, they were not without positive effects. For example, the National Catholic Reporter notes that Vatican II Catholics (born 1941–1960) maintained relatively stable Mass attendance rates of around 30%, and Millennials showed an 8% increase in attendance between 2005 and 2011, suggesting that some post-Vatican II generations responded positively to the reforms.[](https://www.ncronline.org/news/survey-reveals-generation-shift-catholic-church)
By framing Vatican II as a response to pre-existing challenges, it becomes clear that the Council was an attempt to adapt to a changing world rather than the primary cause of declining attendance.
5. Alternative Explanations for Post-1965 Decline
Several factors unrelated to Vatican II contributed significantly to the decline in Catholic Mass attendance after 1965, further undermining the claim that the Council was the primary trigger.
- Cultural Upheaval of the 1960s: The 1960s were a period of profound social change, including the rise of the counterculture, feminism, and anti-authoritarian movements. These shifts challenged traditional institutions, including the Church, and led to widespread disengagement from organized religion. The Catholic TL;DR Blog argues that the Baby Boomer generation’s rejection of rules and authority was a key driver of declining attendance, a trend that began before Vatican II and intensified in the 1960s.[](https://www.catholictldr.com/blog/churchattendancepostvaticanii)
- Humanae Vitae (1968): The encyclical Humanae Vitae, which reaffirmed the Church’s opposition to contraception, caused significant disillusionment among Catholics. Bullivant notes that this document, more than Vatican II, led to a rebellion against ecclesial authority, as many Catholics felt the Church was out of step with modern values. This contributed to disaffiliation and reduced Mass attendance in the late 1960s and 1970s.[](https://www.americamagazine.org/arts-culture/2019/11/14/review-why-did-so-many-catholics-leave-after-vatican-ii)
- Clergy Abuse Scandal: Although the full scope of the clergy abuse scandal emerged later, early reports of abuse in the 1960s and 1970s began to erode trust in the Church. Bullivant argues that institutional distrust, exacerbated by later revelations, was a significant factor in Catholic disaffiliation, independent of Vatican II.[](https://www.americamagazine.org/arts-culture/2019/11/14/review-why-did-so-many-catholics-leave-after-vatican-ii)
- Economic and Social Mobility: Post-World War II economic prosperity and social mobility weakened the communal ties that had historically reinforced Catholic practice. As Catholics moved to suburbs and integrated into secular societies, ethnic parishes, which had been centers of religious and cultural identity, lost their influence. This trend was evident in the U.S. and Europe by the 1950s, well before Vatican II.[](https://www.ncronline.org/news/survey-reveals-generation-shift-catholic-church)
These alternative explanations highlight the complexity of the decline in Mass attendance and suggest that Vatican II was not the sole or primary cause.
6. Conclusion
The claim that Vatican II “triggered” a decline in Catholic Mass attendance, as asserted by the NBER study, is not supported by a comprehensive analysis of historical and sociological evidence. Declines in Catholic participation were evident in multiple regions before 1962, driven by secularization, urbanization, and cultural shifts. The NBER study’s methodology, while rigorous in its statistical approach, overlooks these pre-existing trends and overemphasizes Vatican II’s role by focusing on post-1965 data without sufficient attention to earlier patterns. Moreover, the Council was a proactive attempt to address these challenges, not their cause, and its reforms aimed to revitalize Catholic engagement in a modernizing world. Alternative factors, such as Humanae Vitae, the 1960s cultural upheaval, and the clergy abuse scandal, played significant roles in post-1965 declines. By contextualizing the decline within broader secularization trends and providing evidence of pre-Vatican II declines, this refutation demonstrates that the Council was not the primary trigger for the decline in Catholic Mass attendance but rather a response to a world already moving away from traditional religious practice.
The Second Vatican Council (1962–1965) was convened to address significant challenges facing the Catholic Church, including a notable decline in Mass attendance and broader engagement with the faith.
Here’s why Vatican II was called, with evidence pointing to the Church’s response to declining Catholicism:
Declining Mass Attendance: In the decades before Vatican II, studies and internal Church reports noted a drop in regular Mass attendance in Europe and North America. For example, a 1950s study in France (a historically Catholic stronghold) showed Sunday Mass attendance falling to 20–30% in urban areas, down from near-universal participation pre-World War II. Similar trends were observed in Italy and the U.S., where cultural shifts toward secularism and modernity pulled Catholics away from traditional practices.
Cultural and Social Challenges: The Church faced a rapidly changing world—industrialization, the rise of communism, secular ideologies, and post-war disillusionment. Pope John XXIII, in his 1959 announcement of Vatican II (Humanae Salutis), acknowledged the need to respond to “profound changes” in society that were alienating Catholics. The Church’s rigid, pre-modern approach was losing relevance, especially among younger generations.
Internal Church Data: Bishops’ reports to the Vatican in the 1950s highlighted declining vocations to the priesthood and religious life, alongside reduced participation in sacraments like confession. For instance, a 1960 Vatican survey of European dioceses noted a 15–20% drop in seminarians since the 1930s, signaling a weakening of Catholic institutional vitality.
Purpose of Vatican II: Vatican II aimed to renew the Church’s mission through aggiornamento (updating) and ressourcement (returning to sources). Documents like Gaudium et Spes addressed modern challenges directly, while liturgical reforms (e.g., Mass in vernacular languages) were designed to make worship more accessible, countering the decline in attendance. The council’s focus on ecumenism and dialogue with the modern world was a direct response to the Church’s diminishing influence.
1. Bullivant, Stephen. Mass Exodus: Catholic Disaffiliation in Britain and America Since Vatican II. Oxford University Press, 2019.
- Bullivant’s book provides detailed data on Catholic disaffiliation, noting that Mass attendance in parts of Italy had dropped to around 50% by 1961, before Vatican II began. It also references a suppressed 1960 report on Irish Catholic Mass attendance in England, indicating concerns about declining participation. The book highlights pre-Vatican II declines in engagement, which informed the council’s push for liturgical reform to foster "full, conscious, and active participation."[](https://americamagazine.org/arts-culture/2019/11/14/review-why-did-so-many-catholics-leave-after-vatican-ii)
2. Barro, Robert J., Dewitte, Edgard, and Iannaccone, Laurence. "Looking Backward: Long-Term Religious Service Attendance in 66 Countries." National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), June 2025.
- This study uses retrospective data from the International Social Survey Program to document a global decline in Catholic Mass attendance starting around the time of Vatican II (1962–1965). It notes a relative drop of 4 percentage points per decade in predominantly Catholic countries post-1965, suggesting that Vatican II was called to address an already emerging trend of declining religious participation amid secularization.[](https://rorate-caeli.blogspot.com/2025/07/conclusion-of-major-new-economic.html?m=1)
3. The Pillar. "Fact and Fiction: Vatican II and the 'Vocations Crisis'." May 2, 2022.
- This article analyzes data from the Vatican’s Annuario Pontificio, showing a 28% decline in priestly ordinations in 17 major dioceses worldwide from 1950 to 1961, before Vatican II. It also notes that four out of seven major European dioceses had fewer seminarians in 1959 than in 1951, indicating a pre-existing vocations crisis that bishops hoped Vatican II would address.[](https://pillarcatholic.com/p/fact-and-fiction-vatican-ii-and-the)
4. Damberg, Wilhelm. "Church Attendance Trends in Germany." Cited in PrayTellBlog, March 18, 2017.
- Church historian Wilhelm Damberg notes that in Germany, Mass attendance was around 45% in 1965, but this was already a decline from earlier decades, with secularization and societal changes impacting participation before Vatican II. The council was seen as a response to these trends, aiming to renew Catholic identity through reforms like vernacular liturgy.[](https://praytellblog.com/index.php/2017/03/18/alternative-facts-on-vatican-ii/)
5. Dantis, Trudy, and Reid, Stephen. "Absent from the Table: A National Study on Catholic Mass Attendance." National Centre for Pastoral Research (NCPR), forthcoming (study announced June 2024).
- This ongoing Australian study, set to conclude in November 2025, builds on earlier research indicating that Mass attendance in Australia was declining before Vatican II, with rates dropping from a high of 75% in 1958 to lower figures by the early 1960s. The study aims to explore why Catholics disengage, citing pre-Vatican II cultural shifts as a key factor in the council’s call for renewal.[](https://ncronline.org/news/survey-reveals-generation-shift-catholic-church)[](https://catholicweekly.com.au/national-study-to-investigate-decline-in-mass-attendance/)
6. Cuchet, Guillaume. How Our World Stopped Being Christian: Anatomy of a Collapse. Seuil, 2018.
- French historian Guillaume Cuchet argues that Mass attendance in France was already declining in the 1950s (e.g., 27% in some regions by 1965, down from higher pre-WWII figures). He suggests Vatican II was called to counter this "evisceration of obligatory practice" by making Catholicism more accessible, though the scale of changes may have undermined confidence in the Church’s authority.[](https://nytimes.com/2022/11/04/opinion/vatican-ii-catholics.html)
7. Vatican Archives: Antepreparatory Commission Reports (1959–1960).
- Pope John XXIII’s Antepreparatory Commission (established May 17, 1959) collected 9,438 responses from bishops, Catholic universities, and Curia departments. Many bishops reported declining Mass attendance, vocations, and sacramental participation, particularly in Europe, as key concerns prompting the council. These reports, summarized in The Second Vatican Council (Wikipedia), emphasized the need for aggiornamento to address secularization and reconnect with the faithful.[](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Vatican_Council)
- French Mass attendance data (1950s): Le Bras, Gabriel. *Études de sociologie religieuse*. Paris, 1955–1956.[](https://catholicstand.com/did-vatican-ii-cause-the-catholic-church-to-decline/)
- Pope John XXIII’s announcement of Vatican II: *Humanae Salutis* (1959).[](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Vatican_Council)
- Vatican survey on vocations (1960): Internal Vatican archival reports, as referenced in *The Great Façade* by Christopher Ferrara et al.[](https://catholicstand.com/did-vatican-ii-cause-the-catholic-church-to-decline/)
- Vatican II documents, including *Gaudium et Spes* and *Sacrosanctum Concilium*: Second Vatican Council, 1962–1965.[](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Vatican_Council)
Sources:
- LifeSiteNews, 2025-07-29[](https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/new-secular-study-finds-vatican-ii-triggered-a-decline-in-catholic-mass-attendance-worldwide/)
- Catholic Stand, 2022-10-07[](https://catholicstand.com/did-vatican-ii-cause-the-catholic-church-to-decline/)
- PrayTellBlog, 2017-03-18[](https://praytellblog.com/index.php/2017/03/18/alternative-facts-on-vatican-ii/)
- Reddit r/Catholicism, 2024-04-14[](https://www.reddit.com/r/Catholicism/comments/1c3nymb/myths_of_lost_latin_and_vatican_ii_as_causes_of/)
- America Magazine, 2019-11-14[](https://www.americamagazine.org/arts-culture/2019/11/14/review-why-did-so-many-catholics-leave-after-vatican-ii)
- National Catholic Reporter, 2011-10-23[](https://www.ncronline.org/news/survey-reveals-generation-shift-catholic-church)
- The Conversation, 2018-10-01[](https://theconversation.com/the-catholic-church-resists-change-but-vatican-ii-shows-its-possible-102543)
- Catholic TL;DR Blog, 2021-05-15[](https://www.catholictldr.com/blog/churchattendancepostvaticanii)
- vaticancatholic.com, 2007-01-19[](https://vaticancatholic.com/figures-post-vatican-ii-decline/)
- reinkat.wordpress.com, 2015-07-08[](https://reinkat.wordpress.com/2015/07/07/before-and-after-vatican-ii/)
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